One-Way
Although the nadir for the DJI during the GFC came in Mar-09, the index’s YoY didn’t turn positive until Oct-09. That was 95 months ago. Remarkably, the index’s YoY has been positive in 85 of those...
View ArticleMid-Cycle Pause Analog Update
It’s been nearly three months since I last updated my big-picture US equity cycle analogs. Let’s take the time to refresh them now. Here’s our mid-cycle pause analog. Price continues to track closely...
View ArticleMid-Cycle Pause Analog Update: First Signs of Euphoria?
Since I last updated my big-picture, mid-cycle pause analog framework for assessing US equities in mid-October in this post, optimism about Trump’s tax plan and its ability to successfully sail through...
View ArticleUS Equities’ Historically Extended RSI
As of the week of 12/15/17 the DJI’s weekly RSI logged a print of 85.6 (have chosen DJI instead of SPX because former has more available chart history). It’s continued to print > 85 in each of the...
View ArticleYield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support
Something on the macro front that’s beginning to get some attention is the US yield curve (2s10s), but I think it’s being discussed and analyzed absent proper context. What’s being emphasized is its...
View ArticleHand-in-Glove
As I recently detailed in this post, for whatever reason, the ratio of gold/silver and the Nikkei have been highly correlated across history. The correlation has certainly broken down at times, but...
View Article*If* Gold Miners Have Bottomed…
…this is how we might expect them to trade in their first year per rallies off secular lows in 1932, 1971 and 2000. The black plot is off the 8/18/18 low. Recall that data is FTSE-JSE Gold Miner Index...
View ArticleHistory’s Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles
It’s one thing to analyze trough-peak equity cycles, indexing to 100% off a major low; it’s another to study them peak-peak, indexing to 100% off a major high, following both the ensuing bear market...
View ArticleGoldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks?
Had a repeat of 1937 been on tap, the market would have followed through on last week’s ~300 bps decline with further weakness. It didn’t and instead, rebounded strongly. So, back to the drawing...
View ArticleRevisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom
With a recent piece in Bloomberg highlighting the Nasdaq’s post-4Q18 out-performance resurgence, I thought I’d revisit the topic. Recall that back in Jul-2018 I noted that the Nasdaq’s run of...
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